Planet+update

This is the page for planet updates

OK time someone did some updates, cause things are changing..

**From New Scientist 19 January is a short report about new evidence that the ice at the poles is melting rapidly.**
Satellite data and climate modelling are showing that in the decade ending in 2006, annual ice loss from West Antarctica increased by 59% while losses from the Antarctic Peninsula increased by 140% (Article in Nature Geoscience, DOI:10.1038/ngeo102)

Another report using glacier and meteorological data in Greenland showed that local warming since 1990 has resulted in the most severe melting in 50 years. (Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/2007/JCLI1964.1)

**Some emerging information about coal:**
Coal Reserves

Reports are emerging that coal reserves may not be as great as we have been led to believe. A report by Energy Watch, a group of scientists led by the German consultancy Ludwig Bolkow Systemtechnik, has forecast that global coal output will peak as early as 2025 then fall into a terminal decline.

Whilst official figures dispute this there are some worrying trends. While the price of coal has quintupled since 2002, reserves have fallen. If industry views of reserves are correct then previously uneconomic coal seams should have become economic and reserves should have increased. This situation is similar to the situation with oil.

David Rutledge has applied Hubbert linearisation to coal in a way similar to that used to predict peak oil. When tested against historical data for coal in the UK he found that it accurately predicted the decline of reserves. In applying it to major coal producing countries he suggests that future coal production will amount to around 450 billion tonnes – little more than half the current official reserves.

Most academics and officials still reject this idea, but to do so they tend to rely on the argument that higher prices will lead to resources being transformed to reserves despite this not happening in recent years.

If Rutledge is right and coal peaks much sooner than most people expect then the world is heading for an even bigger energy crisis than many people already predict. Hopes that coal products could replace oil will prove to be unfounded.

If this turns out to be true then the switch to renewable energy becomes even more urgent.

Ref: New Scientist 19 January 2008, page38. See http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/energy-fuels/mg19726391.800-coal-bleak-outlook-for-the-black-stuff.html

**Indications that we may be at or near peak oil.**
Historically the peak in discovery tends to occur 30-40 years before a peak in production. Eg. US discovery peaked in 1930’s. In 1956 geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that US would peak production in 1970. He was ridiculed at the time but eventually proven correct. The world as a whole peaked in discovery on 1965. (see graph in pulse of planet presentation)

Since January 2005 world oil production has stayed at between 84 and 86 million barrels per day in spite of a very high price environment. The world economy desperately wants to increase consumption so its inability to keep up with demand is a strong indication that geological limits are increasingly playing a role over political and economic matters.

Although we are still finding oil, the average size of the fields being discovered is falling. In 1940 the average size of the fields found over the previous 5 years was 1.5 billion barrels. By 2004 it was 45 million barrels. While over 47,500 oil fields have been discovered, the 40 largest ones yield 75% of oil the oil ever discovered.

Tar sands are seen as a possible delayer of the peak. However their extraction is very expensive and requires large amounts of cheap natural gas and water. Extraction of the tar sands requires using natural gas to make steam which is pumped underground to produce ‘synfuel’, a poor quality dirty crude oil. It is estimated that it takes between 2 and 4 barrels of water for every barrel of synthetic crude produced from the tar sands. Canada is home to the largest tar sand deposits and water is already a major factor limiting production.